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Consumer Confidence

Workers at the Kraft Heinz booth count money at the shareholder shopping day as part of the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting weekend in Omaha, Neb.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index improved further in June, following gains in each of the previous four months. The Index now stands at 127.3 (1985=100), up from 120.0 (an upward revision) in May. The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — rose from 148.7 to 157.7. The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions — improved to 107.0, up from 100.9 last month.

“Consumer confidence increased in June and is currently at its highest level since the onset of the pandemic’s first surge in March 2020,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved again, suggesting economic growth has strengthened further in Q2. Consumers’ short-term optimism rebounded, buoyed by expectations that business conditions and their own financial prospects will continue improving in the months ahead. While short-term inflation expectations increased, this had little impact on consumers’ confidence or purchasing intentions. In fact, the proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances all rose — a sign that consumer spending will continue to support economic growth in the short-term. Vacation intentions also rose, reflecting a continued increase in spending on services.”

Present Situation

Consumers’ appraisal of current business conditions improved in June.

  • 24.5% of consumers said business conditions are “good”, up from to 19.9%.
  • 19.5% of consumers claimed business conditions are “bad”, down from 20.6%.

Consumers’ assessment of the labor market also improved.

  • 54.4% of consumers said jobs are “plentiful”, up from 48.5%.
  • 10.9% of consumers claimed jobs are “hard to get”, down from 11.6%.

Expectations Six Month Hence

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term business conditions outlook rebounded in June.

  • 33.3% of consumers expect business conditions will improve, up from 31.0%.
  • Just 10.6% expect business conditions to worsen, down from 14.4%.

Consumers were mixed about the short-term labor market outlook.

  • 25.7% of consumers expect more jobs to be available in the months ahead, down from 27.7%.
  • Conversely, 16.0% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 17.5%.

Consumers were more upbeat about their short-term financial prospects.

  • 18.6% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, up from 16.2%.
  • Only 8.5% expect their incomes will decrease, down from 9.3%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise, and panel of over 36 million consumers. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was June 23.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org