The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.7% in June to 115.1 (2016 = 100), following a 1.2% increase in May and a 1.3% increase in April.
“June’s gain in the U.S. LEI was broad-based and, despite negative contributions from housing permits and average workweek, suggests that strong economic growth will continue in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board. “While month-over-month growth slowed somewhat in June, the LEI’s overall upward trend—which started with the end of the pandemic-induced recession in April 2020 — accelerated further in Q2. The Conference Board still forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth of 6.6% for 2021 and a healthy 3.8% for 2022.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.4% in June to 105.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5% increase in May and a 0.1% increase in April.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. was unchanged in May at 105.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.6% increase in May and 3.0% increase in April.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.