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The Conference Board The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for theU.S. increased by 0.9% in August to 117.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.8% increase in July and a 0.6% increase in June.

“The U.S. LEI rose sharply in August and remains on a rapidly rising trajectory,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board. “While the Delta variant—alongside rising inflation fears—could create headwinds for labor markets and the consumer spending outlook in the near term, the trend in the LEI is consistent with robust economic growth in the remainder of the year. Real GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach nearly 6.0% year-over-year, before easing to a still-robust 4.0% for 2022.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2% in August to 105.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.6% increase in July and a 0.5% increase in June.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.1% in August to 106.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5% increase in July and a 0.1% decrease in June.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. include:

  • Average weekly hours, manufacturing
  • Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
  • Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
  • ISM Index of New Orders
  • Manufacturers’ new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
  • Building permits, new private housing units
  • Stock prices, 500 common stocks
  • Leading Credit Index
  • Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
  • Average consumer expectations for business conditions