The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2% in February to 110.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5% increase in January and a 0.4% increase in December.
“The U.S. LEI continued rising in February, suggesting economic growth should continue well into this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board. “Indeed, the acceleration of the vaccination campaign and a new round of large fiscal supports are not yet fully reflected in the LEI. With those developments, The Conference Board now expects the pace of growth to improve even further this year, with the U.S. economy expanding by 5.5% in 2021.”
“Despite widespread improvements among the leading indicators, some measures — including weekly hours in manufacturing, permits for residential housing, and consumers’ outlook for business and economic conditions — showed signs of weakness. Bad weather and assorted supply-chain disruptions may have impacted these particular leading indicators in February, and the effects may prove transitory,” Ozyildirim added.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
