The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2013, improving to 3.5% growth in 2014, top Fed official Charles Evans said today (Jan. 14).
According to Reuters, Evans also forecast the U.S. unemployment rate would be 7.4% this year, easing to about 7% in 2014.
“One good indicator of labor market improvement would be if we saw payroll employment increase by 200,000 each month for a number of months. We’ve been averaging about 150,000, but it’s been very uneven … we need a higher pace of employment growth and less volatility in that pace,” Chicago Fed President Evans said.
The creation of 1 million jobs over six months would be a “substantive” improvement, but bringing unemployment down to the key level of 6.5% was likely to take much longer, probably until mid-2015, he said, speaking at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision last year to tie monetary policy to specific economic conditions should help boost the recovery without letting inflation take hold, said Evans, a chief architect of the policy.
It also provides additional accommodation by assuring markets that rates will remain low even after the economy perks up, he said.
“Given more explicit conditionality, markets can be more confident that we will provide the monetary accommodation necessary to close the large resource gaps that currently exist,” he said. “Additionally, the public can be more certain that we will not wait too long to tighten if inflation were to become a substantial concern.”
Last month, the Fed ramped up asset purchases aimed at spurring growth, and pledged to keep rates near zero until the unemployment rate drops to 6.5%, as long as inflation expectations do not climb above 2.5%.
Evans, who rotates into a voting spot on the Fed’s policy-setting panel this year, had been pushing for exactly such a threshold-based policy for more than a year, saying the Fed needed to take a much more activist role in trying to meet its mandate to boost employment.