Four decades of U.S. interest rates, GDP growth, and hotel, RV, and campground revenues — how the cost of money and the price at the pump have shaped where Americans travel.
I. The Rate Environment: 1980–2026
| 16.63% Peak Mortgage · 1981 | $4.19/gal Peak Gas Price · 2022 | ~$280B Peak Hotel Rev · 2025e |
| $28.7B Peak RV Rev · 2021 | −54% Hotel COVID Crash · 2020 | 6.46% Mortgage Apr 2, 2026 |
Gas prices and interest rates are the two most immediate cost signals that shape Americans’ travel decisions. Rates determine whether consumers can afford to finance the vehicle or hotel project; gas determines the daily cost of using it. When both move together, the outdoor travel economy is compressed from both ends simultaneously — and the data since 1980 reveals that interaction with uncommon clarity.
In 1981, the average 30-year mortgage rate reached 16.63% annually (Freddie Mac PMMS), while the Prime Rate hit 21.5% in December 1980. The Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker’s campaign to break entrenched inflationary expectations drove the federal funds rate to a peak near 20% in June 1981, with unemployment reaching 10.8% by November 1982 — the highest since the Great Depression. The medicine was brutal. The outcome — inflation fell from 14.8% in March 1980 to below 3% by 1983 — was decisive.
By 2021, the 30-year mortgage averaged just 2.96% — the lowest annual average in Freddie Mac records since 1971. The Prime Rate sat at 3.25%. In 2022, the Fed reversed at a pace not seen since Volcker: 11 rate increases in 16 months pushed the Prime Rate from 3.25% to 8.50% by July 2023. Three 2025 cuts brought it to 6.75% by March 2026.
SELECTED ANNUAL RATE, GDP & GAS BENCHMARKS
| Year | Mortgage | Prime Rate | Real GDP | Gas $/gal |
| 1980 | 13.74% | 15.26% | −0.04% | $1.22 |
| 1981 | 16.63% | 18.87% | +1.30% | $1.35 |
| 1982 | 16.04% | 14.86% | −1.44% | $1.28 |
| 1986 | 10.19% | 8.33% | +2.91% | $0.93 |
| 1998 | 6.94% | 8.35% | +4.88% | $1.12 |
| 2008 | 6.03% | 5.09% | −2.54% | $3.32 |
| 2020 | 3.11% | 3.54% | −0.92% | $2.24 |
| 2021 | 2.96% | 3.25% | +5.76% | $3.13 |
| 2022 | 5.34% | 5.18% | +1.32% | $4.19 |
| 2023 | 6.81% | 8.50% | +3.39% | $3.52 |
| 2024 | 6.72% | 8.50% | +2.40% | $3.30 |
| 2025 | 6.66% | 7.50% | +2.23% | $3.10 |
| 2026* | 6.46% | 6.75% | proj. | ~$3.10 |
*2026: Mortgage = Freddie Mac Apr 2, 2026; Prime = Fed H.15 Mar 2026; GDP = projected. Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS; Fed H.15; BEA/FRED; BLS/EIA.
- Gas Prices: The Second Cost Lever
Gasoline prices respond primarily to global oil supply dynamics; interest rates respond primarily to domestic monetary policy. When they move in the same direction simultaneously, the outdoor travel economy is compressed from both ends.
The historical record reveals three gas price regimes. First, 1980–1985: elevated prices ($1.22–1.35/gal) driven by OPEC-Iran-Iraq supply disruptions. Second, 1986–2004: low and stable gas ($0.93–1.92/gal) following the Saudi price war of 1986, reaching an inflation-adjusted 80-year low of $1.12/gal in 1998. Third, 2005–present: structurally higher prices averaging above $2.60/gal, peaking at $4.19/gal in 2022 — the highest annual average since 2014 in real terms.
The EIA confirmed that 2025 marked the third consecutive year of declining nominal retail gasoline prices: $4.19 (2022) → $3.52 (2023) → $3.30 (2024) → $3.10 (2025). Even at $3.10/gal, prices remain significantly above the 2010–2019 average of approximately $2.60/gal.
The years 2008 and 2022 share a chilling pattern: both saw elevated interest rates AND record gas prices — a double squeeze that hit the outdoor travel economy from two directions simultaneously.
III. Three Sectors, Three Sensitivities
HOTELS: SCALE AND LEVERAGE
U.S. hotel revenues grew from approximately $25 billion in 1980 to $218 billion by 2019 — a nearly nine-fold expansion. The industry collapsed 54% to approximately $100 billion in 2020, then recovered: $145B (2021), $195B (2022), $197B (2023), $263B (2024), ~$280B est. (2025). Hotels are the most capital-intensive sector in this analysis, rate-sensitive primarily through their supply side — high rates slow new construction and stress existing debt-heavy operators.
RECREATIONAL VEHICLES: RATE SENSITIVITY AMPLIFIED
RV revenues are the most volatile series in this analysis. Revenue reached a record $28.68 billion in 2021 (RVIA: 600,240 wholesale units), before falling to $27.06B (2022) and $20.27B (2023) as interest rates spiked. The mechanism is direct: RV purchases are financed over 10–15 years at variable rates tied to prime. When prime rose from 3.25% to 8.50% in 16 months, entry-level buyers were priced out, dealer inventories ballooned, and the 2021 first-time buyer cohort (31% of all buyers, per RVIA) faced sharply higher carrying costs.
CAMPGROUNDS: THE RESILIENT FLOOR
Campground and RV park revenues (IBISWorld) grew from approximately $1.8B in 1980 to $10.7B in 2023, declining through only two periods in four decades. In 2008–09, campground revenues fell just 7% vs. hotel declines of −25% and RV collapses of −56%. In 2020, campgrounds fell only 6% while hotels crashed 54%. The structural reason: campground visits require no consumer financing and minimal fuel expenditure, making them the most recession-resilient segment in American travel.
REVENUE COMPARISON: HOTELS VS. RVS VS. CAMPGROUNDS (SELECTED YEARS, $B)
| Year | Hotels | RVs | Campgrounds | Gas $/gal |
| 2000 | $115B | $11.4B | $4.7B | $1.56 |
| 2007 | $155B | $16.5B | $6.1B | $2.85 |
| 2009 | $116B | $7.2B | $5.7B | $2.40 |
| 2019 | $218B | $17.5B | $9.2B | $2.70 |
| 2020 | ~$100B | $14.2B | $8.7B | $2.24 |
| 2021 | $145B | $28.7B | $10.2B | $3.13 |
| 2022 | $195B | $27.1B | $11.0B | $4.19 |
| 2023 | $197B | $20.3B | $10.7B | $3.52 |
| 2024 | $263B | ~$35B† | ~$10.9B | $3.30 |
| 2025e | ~$280B | ~$36B | ~$10.9B | $3.10 |
†2024 RV figure from IBISWorld/MMCG manufacturing estimate — different methodology than RVIA retail figures used for prior years. Sources: AHLA/STR; RVIA; IBISWorld; BLS/EIA.
- Analysis: When Rates and Gas Move Together
The outdoor travel economy responds to interest rates and gas prices simultaneously, and the interaction is non-linear. Three distinct scenarios emerge from the data: when rates are high but gas is low (mid-1980s following the Saudi price war), travel recovers reasonably well. When gas is high, but rates are low (2005–2007), cheap credit absorbs the fuel burden. But when both are simultaneously elevated — 1980–82, 2008, and 2022 — no travel sector escapes, with campgrounds declining far less than the capital-intensive alternatives.
The ZIRP decade (2010–2019) reveals the limits of rate policy as a travel stimulus. Near-zero rates produced record hotel construction, record RV sales and strong campground growth. But QE’s distributional effects primarily benefited upper-wealth households — who also represent the heaviest hotel and RV consumers. The middle-market traveler, whose wages grew more slowly than asset prices, was relatively less advantaged, which may explain why aggregate travel revenue grew impressively in the 2010s while the broader economic recovery remained tepid by historical standards.
Looking forward, the RV industry faces a structural test. The 2021 boom enrolled a large cohort of first-time owners who financed at historically low rates. As those loans reset into a higher-rate environment and gas remains structurally above the 2010–2019 average, whether that enlarged customer base remains engaged — or migrates to campgrounds — may be the defining question of outdoor hospitality through the late 2020s.
| DATA TRANSPARENCY NOTE: RV 2024 FIGURE RV revenue figures for 2019–2023 are from RVIA Annual Industry Profiles (retail value of wholesale shipments) — primary industry data. The 2024 figure (~$35B) is an IBISWorld/MMCG manufacturing revenue estimate using a different methodology. The apparent jump from $20.27B (2023) to $35B (2024) partly reflects this methodology change, not solely market recovery. Readers should treat the 2024 figure as directionally correct but not directly comparable to the RVIA retail value series. |
DATA SOURCES & METHODOLOGY
Mortgage Rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), annual averages 1971–2026.
Prime Rate: Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates / FRED Series MPRIME.
Real GDP: BEA via FRED Series A191RL1A225NBEA (annual % chg, chained 2012 dollars). 2025 = BEA 2nd estimate.
Gasoline Prices: BLS CPI Average Price Data (1980–2022); EIA Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update annual summaries (2023–2025). 2026 = early-year EIA weekly data.
Hotel Revenue: AHLA State of Industry Reports; STR/CoStar; Oxford Economics. Pre-2001 estimated from BEA Accommodation Services / Census.
RV Revenue: RVIA Annual Industry Profiles — retail values 2019–2023. 2024 = IBISWorld/MMCG manufacturing estimate (different methodology). Pre-2019 estimated from RVIA shipment data.
Campground Revenue: IBISWorld Campgrounds & RV Parks US industry report; Sage Outdoor Advisory; KOA North American Camping Report; ARVC.
Peer Review Corrections: The 1990s expansion (120 months) was the longest peacetime expansion to that date; the 2009–2020 expansion (128 months, NBER) holds the current record. 1990s growth attributed to tech/productivity and fiscal consolidation, not primarily to declining rates.
About the Author: Jeff Hoffman is the co-founder of Camp Strategy, a professional development and advisory firm focused on the outdoor hospitality industry. Jeff’s journey began in 1968, working alongside his family at their campground. Through his leadership, the property expanded substantially, boasting well over 300 sites. In addition, Jeff established, owned, and efficiently managed 13 campgrounds, alongside multiple successful ventures in mobile home parks, apartments, hotels, and retail establishments. Jeff is also involved with both the Ohio Campground Owners Association and OHI, serving in different capacities throughout his decades of work in the industry. To learn more about Jeff and Camp Strategy, click here.
